"Vanishing" by D. Travis North

No one can debate the impact that cheaper technologies have done to the photography world – both for professionals and hobbyists – over the past few years. Digital Technology has overtaken film, not only because of it’s ease of use, but because of its significantly cheaper up-keep. The costs of higher end sensors and better memory mediums have plummeted, makeing the apparent endless roll of film even that more endless. 2009 brought several incredible cameras and technologies to the consumer world, including full-frame sensors in smaller camera bodies, Digital HD Video in SLR Cameras, Live View for better focusing, better and cleaner LCD screens popping up all over, and though we hate to admit it – touch screen support on your camera. That has set a wonderfuls stage for 2010, and here is what we predict will be the most beneficial to you.

• Megapixel Wars Will Finally End – The megapixel war was certainly one to be had. For the better part of a decade now, cameras were first compared by the amount of megapixels they could achieve: My 3.2 megapixel beats your 3.1 megapixel camera hands-down. Over 2009, we started to see that battle taper off. And while I can expect that megapixel counts will continue to rise through and beyond 2010, I expect that it will no longer be the main deciding factor between cameras. That’s awesome, because there are too many people that went for one brand over another simply because of it’s megapixel count. In 2010, I expect that more and more consumers will buy cameras based on the total package – the camera system and all that is included – especially in the D-SLR world where it really matters. But more importantly, since the megapixel count is no longer going to be the only key deciding factor, manufacturers are now going to focus on features. We got a hint of that in the last quarter of 2009. Expect that to continue and grow in 2010.
• Full-Format Sensors Become More Common – That’s not to say that this is the beginning of the end of the smaller APS-C (cropped) sensors. After all, there are many benefits to the cropped sensors including longer focal lengths and the most obvious – it’s smaller size. The crop factor is appealing to sports photographers and wildlife photographers because it adds quite a bit to the focal length of your lens. For example, a 200mm lens mounted on a Nikon (1.5 crop factor) results in a 300mm focal length (200 x 1.5). That could save a lot of money and get you that much closer to your subject. The smaller size of these sensors is beneficial to those who like small side-arm cameras. So they will remain for several years longer (don’t jettison your DX lenses yet). But the Full-Format sensors, the more expensive and often considered professional grade sensors, are going to be much cheaper and much more affordable. So those who care less about increasing their zoom will be able to take advantage of the higher pixel counts and the arguably better lenses designed for the full-format sensors. It also means that those who dabble between the digital and film world will actually be able to swap lenses without any impact on focal distance.
• More Useful (and fewer) Pocket Cameras – The megapixel wars were most apparent in the pocket (point-and-shoot) camera market. For each DSLR that made it to market, there were easily 20 more pocket cameras that were released. The price differences and the features between them seemed almost haphazard and incredibly confusing. To date, it all came down to megapixel counts. Now that megapixel counts are tapering off, manufacturers will be eliminating redundancies in their lines. The feature differences between cameras will be much more apparent. This is good for the consumer – easier comparison and decision making.  It’s good for the manufacturer – smaller product lines are easier to support. But it’s also good for the third-party developers, both in the software and peripheral ends of the spectrum.   It also probably means cheaper cameras (due to the economic laws of supply and demand).  I expect that will mean that more and more photographers will carry pocket cameras as side-arms in 2010.
• Better and More Affordable Lenses – Now that the Megapixel wars are (soon to be) over, manufacturers will be focusing on their peripherals. Sony and the Big Two (Nikon and Canon) will likely be focusing on bringing more affordable consumer-level lenses to the market. Sony, a latecomer to the game, has a lot of ground to pick up though – so they’ll probably release the most. It’s my hopes, of course, that none of these companies overlook the professionals and will continue to create incredible high-end lenses as well. I don’t think Lensbaby is done with their line, and I somehow think they’re going to improve upon their system before the end of the year. For that matter, I wouldn’t be surprised if they introduce a whole new lens system.
• Better Photo Sharing and Collaboration - Sites like Flickr are great and they have served their purpose well. I don’t expect that Flickr is anywhere close to its last testament, but you will probably see new services spring up this year. Someone is going to reinvent the photo sharing and collaboration model with new features, better support and more fitting for the needs of more serious photographers. I expect that Flickr will probably reinvent itself as well, either to keep up or make sure that it stays in front. In either case, we will all benefit. Whatever pops up will grow fast, thanks to the well connected lot that we are. But it doesn’t stop there. What’s to prevent any camera manufacturer from adding Wifi or WiMAX support directly into their cameras? Eye-Fi is just scratching the surface…I can’t imagine that the big camera manufacturers haven’t been scratching their heads to figure out how to implement such features directly into the cameras.

In closing, it has to be said: The more things change, the more they stay the same. Photography – though it is an artistic medium – has always been a technology. Technology is ever-changing and advancing in leaps and bounds. To those of us with many years experience, this is not news. Many of us have had to change camera systems at least once. Most of us have at least had to take a step back before moving forward again. There will always be some new technology around the corner that will change the game. So while 2010 will afford us many things, the one constant is change. Those who embrace change will thrive. Those who do not will either carve a niche (like the film community), or they will fade away. Change is inevitable, and it is the gardener separating the flowers from the weeds. I do not say this to scare anyone off, nor do I intent to prevent you from exploring the current technological landscape. Instead, I offer it as a challenge: Be a flower, not a weed – and we’ll see you here, participating in the photography community at this time next year.

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